CEAE PhD Defense: Mehmet Kirtan - Enhancing Risk Navigation in Construction: Developing A Framework on the Systematic Application of Level of Development (LoD) for Predictive Analysis of Cost and Schedule Impacts

Construction planning is a complex process involving critical decisions that significantly influence project success. Early-stage decisions within the project life cycle are particularly impactful as they have the potential to shape functionality with relatively low associated costs. However, the iterative nature of the design process during these early stages introduces high uncertainties. Traditional project delivery methods, such as Design-Bid-Build (DBB) and Construction Management-at-Risk (CMAR), encounter challenges in effectively handling uncertainties and fostering communication among stakeholders in the early stages. This often leads to budget and schedule overruns.

Effectively managing decision-making during high-uncertainty stages requires the identification and communication of uncertainties among stakeholders. Unfortunately, the current information flow within traditional project delivery methods and the design process lacks the capability to adequately identify uncertainties, resulting in decisions influenced by experience, which can be influenced by cognitive bias rather than objective empirical data analytics. These uncertainties contribute to frequent budget and schedule overruns.

The Level of Development (LoD) in Building Information Modeling (BIM) emerges as a promising tool for identifying design uncertainties at different stages of the design process. However, the effective application of LoD, which involves improving data quality and evaluating designs using 3D models, requires a significant upfront investment, limiting its widespread adoption.

This research aims to explore the inefficiencies in decision-making during the early stages of construction planning and investigates how design uncertainties contribute to budget and schedule overruns. The primary objective is to assist stakeholders in understanding the risk associated with decisions based on LoD specifications. By identifying and evaluating potential risk exposures due to the iterative nature of the design process, this research seeks to facilitate more informed project management practices.